Economic interdependence prevents war only when states expect future trade to persist

Evidence

Another study argues that high levels of economic interdependence “can be either peace-inducing or war-inducing, depending on the expectations of future trade.” Economic interdependence fosters peace only “when states expect that high trade levels will continue into the foreseeable future.” If states do not expect high levels of interdependence to continue, war is likely to result. — Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the…, 178

Categorization

• XREF: Parallels the Milgrom trade-institutions material — expectations of continued exchange underpin cooperation there too.