Dictionaries define speculation as conjecture without firm evidence

Evidence

But in the literal sense, speculation is “the forming of a theory or conjecture without firm evidence” or “investment in stocks, property, etc. in the hope of gain but with the risk of loss” (Oxford English Dictionary). Oxford’s Dictionary of Finance and Banking provides more nuance, distinguishing speculation from “investment” in that the former is carried out “for the sole purpose of making a capital gain.” — Aris Komporozos-Athanasiou, Speculative Communities, 83

Categorization

• DEFINE: Bridges the everyday meaning (‘forming a theory without firm evidence’) to the finance meaning (‘sole purpose of capital gain’) — a definitional hinge that connects epistemic speculation to market speculation.
• XREF: The ‘forming a theory or conjecture without firm evidence’ definition parallels the reader’s interest in prediction markets and how belief is priced — speculation as applied epistemics. — connects to: Circumstantial evidence must support a reasonable inference rather than mere speculation — Ruggero J. Aldisert, Agatha D. Aldisert, Logic for Lawyers- A Guide to Clear…, 222; Circumstantial evidence cannot support legal liability when resting entirely on speculation — Ruggero J. Aldisert, Agatha D. Aldisert, Logic for Lawyers- A Guide to Clear…, 237

Broader Connections

• Circumstantial evidence must support a reasonable inference rather than mere speculation #responds-to (0.80) — Ruggero J. Aldisert, Agatha D. Aldisert, Logic for Lawyers- A Guide to Clear…, 222
• Circumstantial evidence cannot support legal liability when resting entirely on speculation #contradicts (0.80) — Ruggero J. Aldisert, Agatha D. Aldisert, Logic for Lawyers- A Guide to Clear…, 237