Contradictory econometric results cannot be adjudicated a priori

Evidence

Replication and the reproducibility of results are at least as problematic in econometrics as the sociologist Harry Collins has shown them to be in the natural sciences. A later test will often contradict an earlier one see the extensive lists of examples in Goldfarb’s 1995 and 1997 papers. In that situation, there may be no a priori way of knowing whether the original test was at fault, whether the new one is incompetent, or whether the discrepancy is to be explained by historical and geographical variation or other differences in the economic processes being studied. — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 108

Categorization

• XREF: Directly transfers Collins’s experimental-replication problem from physics to econometrics—a key methodological bridge for the reader’s performativity project. — connects to: CAPM and market efficiency tests cannot be cleanly separated empirically. — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial…, 110; Modigliani-Miller propositions resist empirical testing because risk classes cannot be fixed — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial…, 389; A finite sample’s variance cannot distinguish a fat-tailed from an infinite-variance distribution — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial…, 499 (+2 more)

Broader Connections

• Modigliani-Miller propositions resist empirical testing because risk classes cannot be fixed #exemplifies (0.85) — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 389
• Combining opposing paradigms yields no rule for which trend prevails when #expands (0.82) — Samuel P. Huntington, The Clash of Civilizations and the…, 71
• CAPM and market efficiency tests cannot be cleanly separated empirically. #qualifies (0.80) — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 110
• A finite sample’s variance cannot distinguish a fat-tailed from an infinite-variance distribution #exemplifies (0.80) — Donald MacKenzie, An Engine, Not a Camera, 499
• Empirical failure does not dislodge orthodox economists from their theory #complicates (0.78) — Philip Mirowski, Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste, 722