Containment rationale for Japanese bases substitutes China for the USSR with weak fit
Evidence
More profoundly, analysts across the political spectrum are increasingly beginning to question the underlying justifications and rationale for the bases. As long as the United States has had bases in Okinawa and Japan, the primary justification for their existence has been that they ensure security for the United States, Japan, and the region. Initially, it was said that the bases helped contain and deter Soviet expansionist desires. Since the end of the Cold War, many have simply substituted China and North Korea for the USSR in the containment/deterrence framework. But North Korea is a small, impoverished nation, possibly on the verge of collapse. And while China’s military power has grown in recent years, it doesn’t approach that of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. What’s more, placing bases and troops on another country’s doorstep can be seen as an aggression in its own right, triggering exactly the kind of military response the strategy is supposedly designed to prevent. — David Vine, Base Nation_ How U.S. Military Bases…, 881
Categorization
Category: Causal Relationships
- XREF: Connects to security dilemma logic — basing on another’s doorstep provokes the very threat it deters.
Related
- The containment rationale for Okinawa bases now rests on weaker threats (similarity 0.91)
- New bases near China and Russia may create the threats they guard against (similarity 0.87)
- Japan no longer needs U.S. bases for its own defense (similarity 0.83)
- New U.S. bases near rivals may create the very threats they aim to counter. (similarity 0.83)
- Hosting US bases makes host countries targets for attack (similarity 0.82)
- Okinawa bases keep Japan locked in as a U.S. client state (similarity 0.82)
- Chinese and North Korean missiles make Okinawa bases militarily obsolete (similarity 0.82)
- Defensive bases can appear threatening to the nations they encircle (similarity 0.82)
- US containment strategy treated Iran as the region’s central threat (similarity 0.82)
- US bases near China and Russia borders raise confrontation risk (similarity 0.80)
- Japan covers roughly three-quarters of U.S. basing costs annually (similarity 0.80)
- Judgments about overseas base security value rest on prior beliefs, not evidence (similarity 0.80)
- Missile advances make close-in Okinawa bases militarily obsolete (similarity 0.80)
- The forward strategy detached US security from national territory (similarity 0.80)
- Bases near rival borders provoke arms races and discourage diplomacy (similarity 0.79)
Broader Connections
- Japan’s payments to host U.S. bases exceed a plausible security rationale today
#corroborates(0.70) — David Vine, Base Nation_ How U.S. Military Bases…, 879 - Overseas bases perpetuate themselves by inventing new missions as old ones expire
#expands(0.60) - New bases near China and Russia may create the threats they guard against
#complicates(0.50) - Overseas bases can increase global danger rather than security
#expands(0.50) — David Vine, Base Nation_ How U.S. Military Bases…, 1060