Conspiracies involving over a thousand people mathematically fall apart quickly
Evidence
The second issue is that, mathematically, many conspiracy theories are completely implausible due to the sheer number of people involved who all need to work together to keep the conspiracy a secret. Model estimates from physicist David Grimes suggest (based on known scandals) that for conspiracies which involve more than a thousand individuals, ‘intrinsic failure would be imminent’. For example, if NASA had faked the moon landing, it would have required over 400,000 employees to have been complicit in the conspiracy. Even the most generous model assumptions suggest that at this rate, the conspiracy would easily have broken down within a few years. In short, many popular conspiracy theories are thus completely implausible. — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof, 174
Categorization
- QUESTION: David Grimes’s failure model is intriguing - worth chasing the underlying leak-rate assumptions and whether the model is well-validated.
- XREF: connects to: Over-elaborating a conspiracy produces an undefeatable adversary — Michael Barkun, A Culture of Conspiracy: Apocalyptic…, 1070; Successful conspiracies go unnoticed and are hard to estimate. — Joseph E. Uscinski and Joseph M. Parent, American Conspiracy Theories, 198; Real conspiracies by capital are routine while conspiracy theory distorts them — Naomi Klein, Doppelganger: A Trip into the Mirror…, 772 (+2 more)
Broader Connections
- Over-elaborating a conspiracy produces an undefeatable adversary
#complicates(0.80) — Michael Barkun, A Culture of Conspiracy, 1070 - A secret-government claim makes conspiracy theories unfalsifiable to their audiences
#contradicts(0.80) — Michael Barkun, A Culture of Conspiracy, 443 - Real conspiracies by capital are routine while conspiracy theory distorts them
#complicates(0.75) — Naomi Klein, Doppelganger, 772 - Successful conspiracies go unnoticed and are hard to estimate.
#complicates(0.72) — Joseph E. Uscinski and Joseph M. Parent, American Conspiracy Theories, 198 - Apparent conspiracy correlations often dissolve once a third confounding factor is recognized
#exemplifies(0.72) — Sander van der Linden, Foolproof, 217