Behavioral surplus flows back to shape driver behavior and feed prediction futures markets

Evidence

Drivers are persuaded, induced, incentivized, or coerced into a quid pro quo that links pricing to the expansion of a real-world extraction/execution architecture aimed at new behavioral surplus flows (economies of scope). Behavioral data drawn from their experience are processed, and the results flow in two directions. First, they return to the drivers, executing procedures to interrupt and shape behavior in order to enhance the certainty, and therefore profitability, of predictions (economies of action). Second, prediction products that rank and sort driver behavior flow into newly convened behavioral futures markets in which third parties lay bets on what drivers will do now, soon, and later: Will he maintain a high safety rating? Will she act in compliance with our rules? Will he drive like a girl? These bets translate into pricing, incentive structures, and monitoring and compliance regimes. In both operations, surplus drawn from the driver’s experience is repurposed as the means to shape and compel the driver’s experience for the sake of guaranteed outcomes. Most of this occurs, as MacKay advised, outside the driver’s awareness while she still thinks that she is free. — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 679

Categorization

• DEFINE: Concretely exemplifies economies of scope and economies of action through the auto insurance case.
• XREF: The behavioral futures market concept echoes the book’s earlier prediction-product framing and the broader theme that prediction substitutes for direct observation of free will. — connects to: Behavioral risk models make constant tracking structurally necessary for insurers — Nick Couldry & Ulises A. Mejias, The Costs of Connection: How Data Is…, 421; Behavioral surplus forecasting power drives a second imperative beyond extraction — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 620; Markets in future behavior emerged from Google’s predictive analysis of data exhaust — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 1066 (+3 more)

Broader Connections

• Google’s auctions actually traded derivatives of behavioral surplus #expands (0.90) — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 259
• Markets in future behavior emerged from Google’s predictive analysis of data exhaust #expands (0.85) — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 1066
• Behavioral futures markets are only incidentally about advertising #expands (0.80) — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 305
• Behavioral surplus is data used beyond improving search service quality #complicates (0.70) — Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Capitalism, 232