Baltic export-led recoveries partly relied on neighbors’ demand, not austerity itself

Evidence

Fourth, and most critical in terms of exporting this “success” elsewhere, the external demand that caused the REBLLs to bounce back cannot be used to bring back the PIIGS or anyone else. While Bulgaria and Romania have relied on domestic demand and linkages to the German auto sector as the main driver of the economy, exports make about half of the Baltic States’ GDP. Since it is precisely domestic demand that suffers the most when austerity is implemented, this leaves exports as the main engine of growth. While all the REBLLs, but especially the Baltic States, have seen significant increases in exports, this provides little hope for anyone else since the REBLLs’ main trading partners are countries that have by and large avoided recession since 2008, such as Germany, or recovered very quickly, such as Sweden, Finland, and Russia. Finnish growth isn’t going to do much for Italy and Spain. — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 609

Categorization

• XREF: Connects to the broader austerity literature (Mattei, Skidelsky) and to the expansionary austerity debate’s empirical failures. — connects to: The Baltic austerity ‘success stories’ grew from unstable credit-bubble economies — Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous…, 603; Austerity increased rather than reduced debt in the Baltic states. — Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous…, 608; Tiny Baltic economies filled niche roles unavailable to larger Southern European states — Mark Blyth, Austerity: The History of a Dangerous…, 610 (+1 more)

Broader Connections

• Tiny Baltic economies filled niche roles unavailable to larger Southern European states #corroborates (0.85) — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 610
• Simultaneous deleveraging by all states makes export-led growth self-defeating #qualifies (0.72) — Mark Blyth, Austerity, 48