Aristocracies conceal their small numbers because the unknown seems fearsome and mighty.

Evidence

It is noteworthy that political aristocracies, which are always constructed after the type of closed and rigorously bounded circles, are often militarily unsuccessful under conditions of social expansion. This may result from their aversion to those two forces that, alone or in combination, appoint their disintegration: on the one hand, the aristocracies shrink from summoning the whole populace to united action; on the other, they distrust individual generals who have broad power of authority and striking success. — Georg Simmel, on individuality and social forms_…, 671 (#expands, via linked claim)

But if we can threaten him with a one-in-twenty chance of all-out war in the event he proceeds, and he does proceed, we can hold our breath and have nineteen-to-one odds of getting off without general war. Of course, if we scale down the risk to us, we scale it down to him too; it may degrade the threat to put too much safety in it. But in cases where there is danger that we completely misjudge the enemy’s commitment to an action, or completely misjudge his ability to control his own agents, allies, or commanders, the more moderate risk may deter anything that is still within his control. — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 427 (#expands, via linked claim)

Categorization

• XREF: connects to: Threatening a small risk beats threatening certainty when the enemy’s controllability is uncertain. — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 427; Aristocracies fail militarily because they fear mobilizing masses or strong generals — Georg Simmel, on individuality and social forms_…, 671

Related

• Aristocracies fail militarily because they fear mobilizing masses or strong generals (similarity 0.85)
• Aristocracies rely on secrecy to mask their numerical weakness, exploiting fear of the unknown. (similarity 0.79)

Broader Connections

• Aristocracies fail militarily because they fear mobilizing masses or strong generals #expands (0.78) — Georg Simmel, on individuality and social forms_…, 671
• Threatening a small risk beats threatening certainty when the enemy’s controllability is uncertain. #expands (0.75) — Thomas C. Schelling, The Strategy of Conflict, 427