Apparent mafia fragmentation may actually be centralization plus new entrants.

Evidence

The data presented in 1990 by the chiefs of police and the Carabinieri to a parliamentary commission (Repubblica, June 6, 1990) seem to contradict Judge Falcone’s view: whereas in… the Carabinieri identified 105 mafia families in Sicily, the 1990 report identifies 186. These figures suggest fragmentation, not consolidation. The gap between the two figures, however, is so wide that the new count cannot include only those families operating under the genuine mafia trademark. Although I have not had an opportunity to examine this report, I suspect that it includes ad hoc protection organizations. Fragmentation could therefore be a consequence of centralization: as the mafia vacates its traditional space, new groups compete to fill it. — Diego Gambetta, The Sicilian Mafia The Business of…, 675

Categorization

• XREF: The ‘vacated space attracts competing newcomers’ dynamic parallels Gambetta’s entrepreneurial model where unmet demand for protection invites supply — and echoes Milgrom’s logic that institutional gaps get filled by substitute arrangements.
• QUESTION: The 105-to-186 family count jump is data worth verifying and chasing; Gambetta flags it as likely including non-genuine groups.