Age, not aging, drives Christian nationalist support, predicting its decline through cohort replacement.
Evidence
A second reason why decline is probable is that Americans who support Christian nationalism are getting older and older. Cohort replacement will lead to a continued decline in their numbers. Consider the following evidence. As Table 1.1 shows, the average age of Ambassadors (54 years) is significantly higher than each of the other three groups. The average age of Accommodators (50 years), while lower than the average age for Ambassadors, is significantly higher than Resisters (45 years) or Rejecters (43 years). However, looking at the average ages in 2017 alone could lead one to argue that these differences in age are merely due to the fact that as people age, they are more likely to become more supportive of Christian nationalism. This would lead us to predict that these groups might not shift in size over time. … However, the differences in average age across the four groups have changed significantly since 2007. Then, Ambassadors were actually significantly younger than Accommodators (47 years versus 49 years) and not significantly older than Resisters (45 years) or Rejecters (45 years). If Americans were more likely to support Christian nationalism as they age, we would expect this same relationship to be apparent in both 2007 and 2017. Rather, a decade on, we see that Ambassadors are much older on average and are now significantly older than Accommodators. — Andrew L. Whitehead; Samuel L. Perry, Taking America Back for God, 191
Categorization
- SEED: The data-driven generational-decline case for Christian nationalism could anchor an essay on whether support is fading or merely aging out.
- XREF: connects to: Strong Christian nationalist embrace is shrinking, not growing; Religious disaffiliation correlates with rising opposition to Christian nationalism. — Andrew L. Whitehead; Samuel L. Perry, Taking America Back for God, 178; Christian nationalists bank on turnout over demographic share to stay decisive. — Katherine Stewart, The Power Worshippers: Inside the…, 726
Broader Connections
- Strong Christian nationalist embrace is shrinking, not growing
#corroborates(0.85) - Christian nationalists bank on turnout over demographic share to stay decisive.
#complicates(0.80) — Katherine Stewart, The Power Worshippers, 726 - Religious disaffiliation correlates with rising opposition to Christian nationalism.
#corroborates(0.78) — Andrew L. Whitehead; Samuel L. Perry, Taking America Back for God, 178