A non-expert journalist predicted Iran’s hostage-crisis demands months in advance

Evidence

Stone’s uncanny predictions continue: “What if the new Iranian regime makes demands of its own…lays claim to the foreign holdings and bank accounts of the Shah and the Pahlevi Foundation? What if it demands the Shah’s return for trial on charges of plundering the country? What if it accuses him, as absolute ruler, with absolute responsibility for untold tortures and deaths at the hands of SAVAK?” — Edward W. Said, Covering Islam, 252

Categorization

• SEED: An essay angle: what non-experts with political judgment predicted correctly that credentialed Iran experts missed, and why institutional incentives reward conformity.
• CANDY: I.F. Stone’s uncannily accurate January 1979 predictions about Iran’s demands on the shah.