1970s population-bomb forecasts predicted imminent American water and food rationing

Evidence

Ehrlich predicted that “every American will probably be subject to water rationing by 1974 and food rationing by the end of the decade” and that pesticides like DDT “may have already shortened by as much as a decade the life expectancy of every American born since 1946.” — Richard J. Lazarus, The Making of Environmental Law, 299

Categorization

• CANDY: Ehrlich’s failed specific predictions (water rationing by 1974) make a striking example of confident forecasting gone wrong.
• XREF: connects to: The post-crisis search for prophetic economists diluted prediction into vague prior warnings — Philip Mirowski, Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste, 698; Scientists tied postwar solar research to population and resource exhaustion fears — Adam Rome, The Bulldozer in the Countryside:…, 220

Broader Connections

• Scientists tied postwar solar research to population and resource exhaustion fears #corroborates (0.85) — Adam Rome, The Bulldozer in the Countryside, 220
• The post-crisis search for prophetic economists diluted prediction into vague prior warnings #complicates (0.75) — Philip Mirowski, Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste, 698